Simple Forecast | Forecast Any Time Series Data

Why Forecast

Demand forecasting is used across industries by businesses of all sizes.

Demand forecasting helps companies minimize waste by tracking trends that will affect future demand. This is achieved by looking at historic consumption (eg: Sales) to produce a future forecast.

You can set some basic information about the forecast such as the "forecast Name". this can be the product name and will become useful when saving/downloading the forecasts

The "forecast Group" can be the grouping of the consumption data or the product hierarchy level, depending on the level of data you supplied. This will become useful when saving/downloading the forecasts

Forecast Name

Forecast Group

Next you will want to define how many days into the past you want to take into consideration for the forecast, this can be important for seasonal Items.

You will also want to define how many days into the future you want to take into consideration for the forecast.

History Days

Forecast Days

Next you will want to define how you want to aggregate the information, this will remove too much variation in the consumption history and create a better forecast as well as make the information easier to read.

You can change the level of aggregation on the same data and click forecast again to see the effect right away

this will affect your consumption and promotional information as well

You will also want to define which forecast methods you want to use as not all forecast methods are relevant to every type of product. Click on the Method names to slelect or deselect a method

Reporting periods

Aggregate To

Forecast Methods

Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Linear Predictor Seasonal With Trend

Additional Settings let you set the number of Periods back for a "Moving Average" as well as the "weightings" (eg: 0.8,0.1,0.05) for a "Weighted Moving Average"

"weightings" for a "Weighted Moving Average" are applied from the first decimal (eg 0.8) to the last provided (eg 0.05) separated by comma's

"weightings" for a "Weighted Moving Average" are applied from the first decimal (eg 0.8) to the furtherest consumption point in the "Periods Back"

Additional Settings

Moving Average
Average of X periods back to create the next period forecast

Periods Back
Weighted Moving Average
Average of X periods back to create the next period forecast with a weighting for each period applied

Periods Back

weighting per period

How to Add Consumption Details

To add consuption details you require a "Consumption Date" and a "Consumption Value" for that date.

You can add these one by one through the user interface by filling in the "Consumption Date" and "Consumption Value"

then clicking the Add Button which will also clear the "Consumption Date" and "Consumption Value":

or you can upload a ".csv" file which expects "Consumption Date" in the first column and "Consumption Value" in the second column:

"Consumption Date"
"Consumption Value"

An example file can be found here: Consumption Data

Change the values in the example file to your own values and then at the bottom of the "Add Consumption Details" look for the upload button and navigate to your file on your computer:
Upload

To see and validate the data click the big "Aggregate Consumption" button

you will see the values in the "Consumption Graph" view.

hover over the points with your mouse to see the values.

Consumption Graph

Add Promotion Details

To add promotion details you require a "Start Date", and "End Date", choose an "Apply To" (ConsumptionValue/ForecastValue) and a "Percentage" for those dates.

You can add these one by one through the user interface by filling in the "Start Date", and "End Date", choose an "Apply To" (ConsumptionValue/ForecastValue) and a "Percentage"

then clicking the Add Button which will also clear the "Start Date", "End Date", "Apply To" and "Percentage":

or you can upload a ".csv" file which expects "Promotion Name" in the first column and "Start Date" in the second column, "End Date" in the third column, "Apply Promotion To" only accepts("ConsumptionValue" or "ForecastValue") and a "Percentage (0-to-1)":

"Promotion Name"
"Start Date"
"End Date"
"Apply Promotion To"
"Percentage (0-to-1)"

An example file can be found here: Promotion Data

Change the values in the example file to your own values and then at the bottom of the "Add Promotion Detail" look for the upload button and navigate to your file on your computer:
Upload

To see and validate the data click the big "Aggregate Promotion" button

you will see the values in the "Promotion Graph" view.